Thursday, June 23, 2011

NBA GMs and Media: Jimmering themselves



Here we are only hours away from the draft and the conventional thinking is that the 2010-2011 college basketball player of the year, Jimmer Fredette will be drafted as high as 7th by the Sacramento Kings or as low as 17th by the New York Knicks.

But why not draft him number first overall? Of course, this might seem like a silly question if there was a Shaq or a Jordan or even a C-Webb on the table. But here's the thing; there is no can't miss prospect on the table. And for our dollar, Jimmer Fredette is the closest thing to a cant miss!

A wise GM would draft Fredette with the number one overall pick. Or rather, given the lay of the land, he would trade back to five or six and then draft him. But certainly Fredette is worthy of being the number one overall pick.

Opening Argument (Why Jimmer Fredette is worthy of the number one overall selection)

Fredette is the best shooter to come out of college since Larry Bird. How is that type of player going to go drafted anywhere below the top five in the shooter deficient NBA?

With 2:27 left in Game 6 of the 2011 NBA Finals with the Miami Heat down 10, the Heat came out of a timeout. Who's number do you think they called? Ah, the great who will get the shot when you need it debate: Lebron or Wade.

It was Eddie House who took the three pointer out of a timeout in a play that was clearly drawn up for him. And why not? Wade or James couldn't throw a rock in the ocean. 

If Fredette was on the court his number would've been called. We've seen him pull up on a dime from forty feet away and hit a three. We've seen him go off a screen and pop a three. How many NBA players can do that consistently as Fredette? We would argue zero. Though we would admit that guys like Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry certainly may come close.

Rebuttal: To the predictable and stale arguments

Argument: Jimmer is too slow.

What? Anybody that followed J.J. Reddick's career at Duke, knows that the entire Blue Devil game plan was to run Reddick off screens and get him a three. He was too slow to create shots for himself.

Despite that obvious deficiency, Reddick is a quality rotation player that occasionally starts at the NBA level. And it's worth noting that he has actually improved his ability to create shots while doing it at 'the next level.'

Of course besides the shooting prowess, Jimmer Fredette and J.J. Reddick are no the same player. Did the critics bother watching Fredette play? He drove to the basket at will against anybody. When the tournament rolled around, teams knew what was coming and they still could not stop it.

Why? Because he has a crazy quick cross-over when they get up in his grill and if they sag back he'll nail a forty footer in their eye. It's pick your poison. And when Fredette did drive to the rim, he nailed off balanced shots with Manu Ginobili styled precision.

The slow argument is a complete farce (especially on the offensive side of the ball).

By the way, it's worth noting that Jimmer's vertical at the NBA combine, was measured at 36 inches. He's not the slow white guy that can't jump.

Argument: Jimmer's too short

Jimmer is listed 6'2". Kyrie Irving is listed at 6'3." Too short? C'mon. Is Chris Paul too short?


Argument: Jimmer can't play defense

Out of all of the concerns, this may be the most valid concern. 

Still, Jimmer was not asked to really play defense at BYU. And why would they? He was their offensive motor and it hurt the team if he fouled out or tired himself out on defense while consistently playing all forty minutes. Not to mention, his back court mate Jackson Emery was only the greatest BYU defender in BYU history and he was great at picking up the defensive slack for Fredette.

Jimmer may surprise us all and turn out to be a solid defensive player. But for a moment, let's assume he ends up being a sub-par defensive player. Is it really as big of a deal as we think it is? The truth be told, how many 'Kobe stoppers' are there anyways?

Teams are not fashioning their defenses to clamp down on outside shooters. The Mavericks played zone almost the entire 2011 NBA Finals. Lebron James and Dwyane Wade's resulting shooting made Shaun Marion and the old geezer, Jason Kidd, 38 look like defensive wizards. Do we really think Jimmer would play much worse defense than them?

Argument: 'We're just not sure his game will translate at the next level'

Here's the cold hard truth. Many first round picks never pan out. A significant number of lottery picks never pan out. And in some cases even first overall picks like Kwame Brown (2001) never come close to even making it to an All-Star game.

Anyone using this argument, is really just being indecisive and lazy. They are straddling the fence. They know damn well whether or not they think Fredette will make it at the next level.

By the way, it's not just the run of the mill free-lance journalist or Disney Sports Network 'expert' saying these things. Following BYU's Sweet Sixteen exit, Colin Cowherd ran a promo saying, 'Jimmer Fredette coming to an NBA bench near you.'

Dan Patrick joked about a random person's tweet about moving the his scoring stats two decimal points to the right. So instead of averaging 28.9 points, he would be averaging 2.89 points per game. He made sure to point out that was not his thought per se. In other words, he's happy to say he knew all along that Jimmer would be a bust if it happens. But still, he's not really sure and more than willing to hedge isn't he?

Clearly, DP was being a weenie. We can actually respect Cowherd for taking a stand and even believing in it enough to run a promo on it. Of course, he'll be eating crow. 

Shots Heard is calling it now, Jimmer Fredette will be an NBA all-star. We feel more confident predicting that about Fredette than any other player in the draft.

Argument: Jimmer might be the next 'Insert crappy white guy high draft pick bust.'

Adam Morrison, Shawn Bradley, Darko Milicic. Sure they were all high draft pick busts. Yea, they all happened to be white. Then again, players like Larry Bird, Chris Mullin, John Stockton, Peja Stojakovic did pan out just fine. Why are a few white busts making GM's so gun shy?

It's ridiculous. If Fredette were black, he'd be a no brainer for the first overall pick. NBA GMs and critics need to drop the white voo doo politics and believe what their eyes.

Kevin Durant didn't let that seed of doubt or rather white bias, grow in his mind when he tweeted 'Jimmer Fredette is the best scorer in the world!'

Considering the weak draft class

Let's repeat: Jimmer Fredette is the closest thing to a 'can't miss prospect' in this craft class. To understand that further, we need to look at just some the most touted players in the draft.

Kyrie Irving

Irving typifies just how weak the 2011 draft. In many draft years, we are not sure that Irving would even be a lock to be a lottery pick. Nothing about Irving stands out, not his speed, strength, shot making, passing, physical presence (he's listed 6'3"). Nothing! 

We're pretty sure that the experts bought their own hype about how well Duke played at the start of the season with him in the line-up and how bad they played when he went out. But do they somehow forget that he was in the line-up when the Arizona Wildcats crushed them by 20 to end the Blue Devil run?

The apologists will point out that maybe Irving's toe was not healed. Maybe that's a fair enough point (maybe it really isnt'). But do they really see something so stellar in his play at the end of the day?

Irving marks the first paper first overall pick. Last year he averaged 17.5 ppg 'in a system' while shooting over 50 percent from the floor and over 90 percent of the line. But the truth be told, nothing about his individual skills leads us to believe that his skills will actually translate at the next level. 

How come nobody is actually bringing that up? It seems like a double standard; one standard for the black player and another for the white player. The truth is Irving just succeeded in a system while Jimmer was just told go score the damn ball. What is actually more impressive when you think about it?

Derrick Williams

William reminds me of another former number one overall pick, Kenyon Martin. Just like Martin, Williams is a a four that can shoot. He can even shoot a bit better than Martin. Both of them are/were athletic fours that could rock the rim.

Besides their games, Williams matches Martin's same bad attitude. Like Martin, Williams talks and talks. When Williams found out Cleveland had the number one overall pick, he tweeted that he could fill the void that Lebron James left. It's the type of tweet that a younger Martin would have tweeted. And frankly, Martin's attitude made him think that he didn't have to work on his game.

Of course they are not dead ringers. Martin was a three point eight. He was mainly a four but he could play a little three in a tall line-up. Martin on the other hand is a three point five. That does not bode well for him at all. It means he'll get man handled when he plays the four and out quicked when he plays the three. 
Williams will contribute right away, but it'll take a couple years for his body to mature into a three or four. And even then, the kid is no lock to be an all-star.

It's also worth noting, that Williams draft stock rose on account of his 32 point, 13 rebound performance against Duke in the tournament. But what did he do in the previous game against Texas? How about 17 points on 4-14 shooting and only 9 for 15 from the line. And what did he do in the game after Duke, against UCONN? Try 5-13 shooting for 20 points and only 5 rebounds. 

Clearly Williams is not a consistently dominant player. He is simply capable of having a strong outing.

Enes Canter

He's a European player that has Dirk Nowitzky potential. But perhaps that is just a lot of hype. We really have no idea at this point if he'll even not be a bust. We are sure that there is a European player that every year is called the next Dirk. But in the last thirteen years we haven't exactly seen the next Dirk have we? (Unless you count the real Dirk resurrecting his career and winning the championship this year).

Brandon Knight

Knight is expected to be a top five pick. Had he stayed in college for two more years he would have possibly made it to the number one overall pick status. Then again, he might have exposed a ceiling on his game and slid to the mid first round.

Either way, Knight is not what Obama would call a 'shovel ready project.' He likely will not start before his third year in the league. Think a more athletic Ty Lawson. Yea, that's how weak this lottery draft class really is.

Kawhi Leonard

We actually think Leonard is an unpolished Paul Pierce type of player. And just like Pierce was overlooked, so is Leonard being overlooked. At the end of the day, the only one with a bigger chip on his shoulder than Leonard, might be Jimmer.

Like Pierce, Leonard can shoot the three and he's very comfortable operating in the high post. His shot is not as smooth as Pierce's shot. But he is a monster rebounder. He would possibly be the best three/four combo 
player rebounder in the league right away (Kevin Love is a four five combo rebounder for the record).

Jonas Valunciunas

He's predicted to go as high as four overall. He's probably just the next Eric Montross (speaking of white busts). He's certainly not a player that any GM with a half a brain would take over Jimmer. Of course, most GMs apparently don't have half a brain.

Jan Vesely

He's put a few nice poster dunks on some other white guys and now people are hyping him. But the reality is that the 6'11" small forward is not even a poor man's Kevin Durant. He doesn't shoot from range or make free throws.

Tristan Thompson

We're guessing that in this weak draft class, NBA execs like his NBA ready body. But in many years he's not even a first round draft pick.

Kemba Walker

He's basically a middle class man's Chris Paul. Quickness and defensive prowess are his two greatest assets. How his shot will fall at the NBA level is an unknown. How well he can run a team is an unknown as well. He will have to develop greater court awareness, particularly in the pick and roll and his passing game. Inch for inch he is definitely the most athletic player in the draft.

Conclusion

So we see that this is not at all a top heavy draft (some would argue it is deep though). But there is one guy, one brand name that has that 'larger than life' presence with the skills to match. He is Jimmer Fredette. Besides his great game, Jimmer has great character. It's that same charcater that brought him to this point.

How many NBA teams have primadonnas infecting their locker rooms like a cancer? That is not Jimmer. It damn well is Williams or possibly a Walker.

How many GMs suffer while they watch their teams put up brick after brick? You won't have that problem with Jimmer. In fact, those GMs will be on their feet with fans as Jimmer routinely puts on a shooting exhibition.

As you watch draft night unfold, note each team that passes up on Jimmer Fredette. Each of those teams has a GM that likely won't be a GM in about two to three years. Because any GM passing up on Jimmer clearly does not know what he is doing.

Jimmer will make the naysayers pay. 

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