Monday, December 3, 2007

Fit Santana for his pinstripes if the new Sox stay in the drawer

As the Minnesota Twins push for the best deal for Johan Santana. The two teams in the running are the Red Sox and Yankees.

The Yankees current offer seems better than the Red Sox offer. The Yankees have upped their ante to include the heralded top-prospect Phil Hughes (SP) with Melky Cabrera (CF), and a "2nd tier prospect"; although the speculation is they will break down and give up a top-tier prospect like pitcher Ian Kennedy instead. The Red Sox on the other hand are willing to give up outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury or starting pitcher John Lester; but not both in the same deal.

Do the Red Sox really want Santana? Let's assume for the sake of argument that they do, and that they aren't simply trying to make the Yankees pay more for Santana. Then what is going through their mind that they think Ellsbury and Lester are so special as to compromise getting their chances of getting Santana?

Assuming the good ole adage that good pitching beats good hitting holds true, as it almost always does then getting Santana would put the Red Sox miles ahead of those dreaded Bombers. Just imagine Santana and Beckett; arguably the two best pitchers in baseball when they are on, come playoff time. Oh not to mention they would be backed by ManRam and Big Papi. Don't forget that Papelbon can shut the door on opponents as well as any closer in baseball.

That said, the hold-up is the Sox don't want to include Lester and Ellsbury in the same trade? That would be like the Angels in the early 90's turning down a trade for Roger Clemens because they could not part with Jim Abbot and Gary Disarcina in the same trade. That's right an elite ace for two young serviceable players with bright outlooks that still pale in comparison to the Hall of Famer at hand.

Early reports were that Ellsbury and Lester were "untouchable." That's rich. I would expect Mr. Epstein to do his best Chip Douglas (Cable Guy) impression for Bill Smith (Twins GM) anytime.

"I'm just jerking your chain; Wake up little Snoozy, smell the smelling salt!" Jim Carrey in 'Cable Guy'


Lester has for career numbers: a 4.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .278 BAA. Those numbers won't even get him drafted in most 200 player fantasy baseball leagues. If I were Bill Smith (Twins GM),

Ellsbury on the other hand is just a glorified cog. Or in other words he was in the right exciting place at the right time is all. He's a Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn or Todd Walker; only younger and a hot prospect. Jacoby is 6'1" 185. It's no wonder he hasn't hit for more than 7 home runs in college, the minors, or majors.

Red Sox nation is just sloppily high on Ellsbury because he hit .353 in his 116 at-bats. But it's one thing for the fans to overstate their fan ship for Ellsbury, it's another thing for Epstein (Red Sox GM) to pretend he's the next Tony Gwynn though.

Holding onto Ellsbury and Lester because they've had recent high-profile success on their World Series run reminds me of the time I didn't want to sell my $5 Beckett-priced 1992 Fleer Rookie Sensation Darren Lewis card because I thought he might actually be worth a lot more in the long run. Unlike that card, Ellsbury and Lester may end up having some long time worth. But let's just say that offering Santana for them is the equivalent of throwing a Jackson at the card owner.

Santana is realistically going to have his contract extended for between $20 million to $30 million per season to waive his no-trade clause in his contract. At $30 million, that's $1 million a start. It is debatable whether he or any pitcher is worth that, but obviously the Red Sox are past that fact if they are continuing to indulge in trade talks.

If I were the Red Sox, I would say OK you want Lester and Ellsbury. Who else do you need to make this happen? Because quite frankly Ellsbury and Lester do not even match-up to Hughes and Cabrera.


But hey, I don't even like the piss-ant empire that is Red Sox nation. So feel free Mr. Epstein to pretend that two mediocre players are more important to hold onto while your nemesis gets Santana. That would be a nice four point turnaround as they say in basketball.

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