I don't think the West Conference race was so "exciting" as the paid sports media would have you believe. But it was intriguing that there were nine teams competing for 50 wins and a playoff spot. That had me looking forward to the playoff possibilities.
It was close as the eight playoff teams are separated by only seven games. At one point about a month ago, even the defending champion Spurs were in the midst of a slump that had them only two and a half games away from falling out of a playoff slot.
Here are my first round playoff picks:
#1 Lakers vs. #8 Nuggets
Pick: Lakers
This is the easiest one to call; even easier than the Jazz and Rockets series. There are those experts in the media playing devil's advocate or looking for the glory of calling an eight over a one. They say things like this reminds them of the Warriors vs. Mavericks match-up of last year. Or they say that Melo is hungry to make a name for himself like his fellow draft-mates D-Wade and LBJ. And then there's the ever popular this team has a vaunted offense with JR Smith and Kleiza coming off the bench and posting 20 spots in addition to Iverson and Melo.
Now for the truth of the matter. Denver does not have the maturity to beat a team like the Lakers. Melo is off thugging out and getting in DUI's than coming up with conspiracy theories to tell Stephen A Smith. We all have observed the doses of immaturity that guys like Allen Iverson and JR Smith bring to the table as well.
Then look at Denver's defense. They had the worst defense in the league, giving up 107.0 points per game. Iverson got two steals a game, but he takes a ton of risks on steals that don't work out, that his steals number is inflated. Camby gets 3.6 blocks a game, but he is clearly not intimidating opponents. He's just floating around looking to pad his block stats instead of playing a more proper position defense. Last of all, who will guard Kobe? There's no Bruce Bowen or Shane Battier to put on him.
I did not even go over what the Lakers do right to beat their opponent. We will go over that on the round two predictions. The Lakers will win as the Nuggets will take it five or six games and almost surely lose the series.
#2 Hornets vs. #7 Mavericks
Pick: Hornets
This is the hardest series to call. Seems like the seeds got reversed, right? And in my preliminary brainstorming session I was leaning towards Jason Kidd's experience and Dirk's ability to score in bunches while creating his own shots.
But I came back to the Hornets based on Chris Paul being one of the top five players in the game. In a game on the road against the Cavs, Lebron split through three lunging defenders on a drive and laid it up with the left hand. LBJ then wanted to prove that he had not went back to the phone-booth and took his cape off by guarding Chris Paul on the last play of the game. CP3 then easily juked LBJ every which way before going to the basket and taking a couple defenders with him. He then passed it to David West for the buzzer beater and the win.
This series could come down to free-throws. The Mavericks shoot 81.4 percent from the line and the Hornets shoot 76.9 from the charity strike. It'll be important for Dirk and Terry on the Mavs side and Stojakovic and Paul not to not fall in love with the three so much that their respective teams have major free-throw attempt deficits.
#3 Spurs vs. #6 Suns
Pick: Spurs
This is the hardest match-up to call. I'm taking the Spurs by a hair. This series is most likely going to go seven games. Each team just has its own share of vaunted weapons not to notch some W's.
I do believe that the Marion for Shaq trade made the run n' gun Suns a little more lethargic and overall a worse team. However the positive is that the Suns do match-up better with the Spurs. Shaq's ability to body up Duncan and distract him more was noticeable. There will be added pressure on Parker and Ginobili to create offense.
Fortunately Ginobili played like a monster all season. People may not have noticed since he got his usual all-star snubbing; but he was a top ten player all year long. He will be the difference on both sides of the court.
The Suns have more weapons than the Spurs, but guys like Barbosa and Diaw contributed to their underachieving by mailing in sub-par seasons. If they can step it up then maybe the Suns take the edge. But the Nash/Stoudemire pick n' roll combo cannot do it all just as Paul/Chandler and Williams/Boozer aren't enough without the other guys stepping up.
#4 Rockets vs. #5 Jazz
Pick: Jazz
This was not as easy to call as the Lakers vs. Nuggets because defense in the playoffs usually translates into wins; and the Rockets have solid defense. Still, no Yao means no first round victory, no matter who the Rockets ended up matching up with. The other teams are just too deep.
Yes we saw the Rockets win ten of their historical 22 straight wins without Yao. Yes the Rockets have the best defense in the conference, allowing only 92 points per game. Yes, older rookie Scola matured into a strong force faster than could be expected. But all that is not enough for a team that can be shut down on offense by the mere containment and double teaming of T-Mac who holds the ball a lot.
Also the Jazz point differential was fourth-best in the league at 6.9 points a game. The Jazz also sported the best home record at 37-4. This will not be the type of rematch of last year's seven game series that everyone hoped for. After the Jazz beat the Rockets in the first two games on the road, don't be surprised if you see the demoralized Rockets get swept in Utah.
Other 2008 NBA Playoffs Predictions
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