Tuesday, May 20, 2008

2008 NBA Conference Finals Predictions


Who’s perfect? Say it with me. Who’s perfect? Shotsheard is 12-0 on playoff predictions and with the margin for error tightening, it’s going to be tough to stay that way. Still here are the picks that could see me get two more notches closer to the coveted 15-0.

Before the NBA even tipped off, I was texting a friend, asking who he wanted to win in the championship; The Silver and Black (Spurs) or The Dynasty (Celtics). The mid-season Gasol trade threw a wrench in my sureness and at that time with Bynum expected back by mid-March (his season is now over), I was (unofficially) changing my prediction for the West to the Lakers. So how do I feel now? Read on.

Lakers vs. Spurs

How important has the emergence of a big man at the center position been for the Lakers? Andrew Bynum’s pre-injury emergence and then Pau Gasol’s experience boosting the Lakers even more has taken the Lakers from a one and done playoff opponent to a team with a legitimate chance to win it all (even the favorite in most the experts eyes). And were the Lakers to have both big men healthy, they’d be the clear-cut favorite against the Spurs.

The Spurs still have enough in their defensive tank to contain Gasol and Kobe. That makes Odom the x-factor. A great series by Odom, likely means advancing and anything less leaves the door open for the Spurs. Ask Clippers and Heat fans how reliable Odom is for that to happen.

We’ve seen Bowen contain Kobe in the past just as he clamped down on Stojakovic to help the Spurs come back from 0-2 on the Hornets. Also Duncan had to constantly play middle man between a driving Chris Paul and alley-oop receiving Chandler. He can now anchor himself on defense more and that should translate to more concentration on the offensive end. Remember Duncan missed the last 10 shots of Game 7 against the Hornets and the Spurs still controlled the entire game.

And who do the Lakers have that can stop Parker and Ginobili? The media loves to hype up that Kobe can allegedly play great defense when he wants to. But have we really seen that out of him? It's a myth. He's not the glove. He's not Michael Jordan.

Despite those tough words, I see the worthiness of picking the Lakers who have a lot of offensive firepower even at times though they did look sloppy against the Jazz. But I have to go with the defending champions, who can take credit for beating the two toughest teams that are still not alive: The Suns and Hornets.

Pick: Spurs

Celtics vs. Pistons

We can talk about the Pistons going to six straight conference finals. But the Pistons have been sliding ever since they beat the Lakers in the 2004 Finals. Tayshaun Prince is the one hitting game winning shots, because guys like Billups and Hamilton are an eighth of a step slower.

The Pistons defense is not what it was. Flip Saunders does not ever get on them to have defensive tenacity and if he were to do that, they still are not the same defensive powerhouse that they were when a prime Ben Wallace anchored them.
Also, we must remember that the C's were a silly James Posey foul away from sweeping the Pistons in the regular season.

The Celtics, who hold home court advantage, have dominated at the allegedly new Boston Garden, having went 8-0 at home in the playoffs so far. Also in the last quarter of Game 6 in Cleveland, the Celtics showed signs of coming out of their road coma, though ShotsHeard has to admonish them for not winning a road game in Hotlanta or Cleveland, going 0-6. They have simply been a team without an identity on the road. The Big Three seemed to act like winning on the road was an entitlement, while role players followed their lead.

This is the match-up we’ve all been waiting for; but as usual, the Western Conference playoffs have stole the Eastern contestants thunder. Nonetheless who ever wins this series has enough in the tank to compete in a championship series. So once we get over our Western Conference playoffs withdrawals, this should be a fun series; assuming these teams can regularly crack 85 points. But don’t hold your breath. Brace yourself for the ugliness.

Pick: Celtics

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