There is a pathology that invades the minds of fans and 'experts' alike. If the sexy Dallas Cowboys, New York Yankees or Montreal Canadiens make it to the championship round in their respective sports, then inevitably just about all of the 'experts' (who are generally financially motivated) and fans are seduced into their fantasy ending and pick. We saw this in 2008 when something like eleven of the twelve 'experts' at ESPN picked the Los Angeles Lakers over the Boston Celtics even though the Celtics were clearly the better team that year.
And what happened in 2008? The Celtics defense and deeper bench prevailed. Here we are in 2010 with essentially an identical situation and the 'experts' and fans are all too happy to ride the Lakers jocks once again. But just like 2008, it might be the Celtics who will likely deliver the salty goodness. That is they'll be the salt of the NBA. What did you think I meant?
Sure the Lakers could win the series. The Celtics do not have it in the bag. But aside from home court advantage what has changed from two years ago when Kobe tried to beat the Celtics one on five?
Changes for the Lakers
- Ron Artest was added. He can play the three well on defense. That was a source of frustration from when they depended on Luke Walton or even Slava Medvedenko. Although Medvenko was more of the four usually and was more of a liability guarding the four (though he was still a liability when guarding the three). But Walton saw limited action and Bryant and Trevor Ariza generally guarded the twos and threes. I can't say I see Artest as any major upgrade on defense or offense from 2008. I'd even argue that the Lakers should have resigned a prime Ariza instead of the aging Artest.
- A healthy Andrew Bynum was always going to be an upgrade for the Lakers. However, he is obviously just a big body out there. The mere fact that he has split his playing time with D.J. Benga at times should be a red flag for the Lakers. In my opinion the Lakers should have shut him down. I actually believe that he is a liability and maybe worse they are gambling with his future in a move that is not working anyhow. The Celtics were in a similar situation last season with Kevin Garnett and they did not screw with it. That is why they are back in the championship at full strength this season.
- Lamar Odom has some composure that he did not have two seasons ago. However, he still can be immature at times. He still can be inconsistent. The Lakers still cannot count on him to be that difinitive third guy. In fact, they have counted on the old Derek Fisher to be their number two guy at the end of the Phoenix series despite, Gasol having a size advantage on the Suns.
Changes for the Celtics
- The Celtics bench is completely different. It is difficult to say whether they are better, worse or the same. I believe that comparable is the word and I quite frankly lean towards better despite the greatness of the Celtics bench in 2008. You may remember that in crunch time of the 2008 Finals Game 4 comeback it was bench players Eddie House and James Posey on the floor. In fact, Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo were nowhere to be found in the fourth quarter of that game! Some of that was due to Perkins's shoulder and Rondo's ankle. But it was mainly due to the performance of the the aforementioned bench players.
P.J Brown, Leon Powe and even Sam Cassell all made significant bench contributions during that NBA Finals and the Celtics bench went ten deep. Incidentally do you know who the eleventh and twelfth men were on Doc Rivers bench that series? It was Glenn 'Big Baby' Davis and Tony Allen! Allen's first Finals appearance was in Game 4, partly due to an achilles injury during the conference finals. But late in the seaons, Rivers took him out of the rotation as it was. Glenn Davis was only a rookie and he only became a part of the Celtics winning formula in last year's playoffs when Kevin Garnett was out with his knee injury.
Doc Rivers has been going with a shorter rotation through the playoffs. He has consistently went only eight deep. That is due to Rondo and Perkins progression as players. But also the House trade likely necesitated it, as Nate Robinson was not acclamated to the Celtics system yet. But the bench that has played has been stellar! Davis would be a starter in most rotations. Allen has accepted his role as a defensive stopper and his limitations on offense (and he drives to the basket for scores at key times).
Rasheed Wallace was going to make or break the Celtics. One ESPN columnist wrote a brutal column about how he was out of shape and selfish. And during the Heat series, Wallace was only validating his words. But he has layed off the fast food (assumedly) and his killer instinct has returned. He was a key component in their series against the Cavaliers. His defense against Dwight Howard in the Orlando series was brilliant and his shot selection (and execution) was much improved. With Wallace (and Davis's progression) improved performance, the Celtics are not feeling a loss when Perkins or Garnett sit on the bench.
Lastly, Nate Robinson did not get enough playing time in the Orlando series (or the playoffs) to be a true x-factor. But after his Game 5 and 6 performances against Orlando, Doc maybe consider a true nine man rotation. Robinson's ability to make threes and his speed to push the tempo could both be big keys for the Celtics. I would even go with Robinson and Rondo on the court at the same time at times if I was Doc Rivers. I would even consider going with a small line-up at times to force the slower Lakers into a running game and to stretch them in the half court. I would consider the use of a Rondo, Robinson, R. Allen, Pierce and Garnett line-up.
The improved bench play is important since in last season's playoffs, with KG injured, the Celtics were over relying on guys like Brian Scalabrine! Though he played well, the Celts simply had to expect too much out of him.
- Perhaps the biggest change for the Celtics is the development of their young players. Rondo, Perkins, T. Allen and Davis all are bigger parts of the puzzle than in 2008. Rondo was showing signs of being great in that 08 Finals, but the truth is he was like a young Tony Parker. Parker was the starter in 2003 but it was often Speedy Claxton playing the point at the end of games. So was the case in 2008 in which House got more crunchtime minutes than Rondo. We all know how Rondo has blossomed since then. We all are aware that it is not the Big Three anymore (Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen). Rather it is the Big Four (Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo) or as Magic Johnson likes to say The Big One and The Little Three. That is how far Rondo has came. There is talk that Rondo is the best point guard in the league. I would still put him behind Chris Paul and Deron Williams. But based on performance in the playoffs over the last two years, the case can be made!
OK Then
So we see that if anything the Celtics have improved more than the Lakers and yet people are once again convinced that Kobe will thrive. But Kobe is not convinced. You will notice how measured his response is when asked about this series. He has essentially said that they will find out whether the status-quo has changed. I am not knocking that either. That is wise. But if Kobe himself is unsure then why would the fans and 'experts' be sure. Do they (you) really think he's masking his true feelings? Because I certainly do not think that is the case. He has a Steve Nash mentality (refering to the last series). He does not know who is better and he hopes whether they are better or not that they can play better at the end of the day.
So to all you bandwagoners
To all you bandwagoners, I have written a parody of Larry Pratt's 'Pants On The Ground.' It was written to the tune of 08, 10 Sharp.
Kobe On The Outside
Kobe on the outside
Lookin' like a fool
With Kobe on the outside
With the bandage on his finger
Bynum's kneed turned sideways
Kobe miss the shot on the outside
Call yourself champs
With Kobe on the outside
Losin' downtown with Kobe on the outside
Celtic Pride!
Hey! Get Kobe to the outside
Lookin like a fool!
Playin' one on five with Kobe on the outside!
Hey! Kobe missing the shots
Jacking up bricks
With Kobe on the outside
With the bandage on your finger
Bynum's knee turned sideways
Call yourself champs?
Kobe's on the outside!
Picture 1: When Kobe goes into the teeth of the Celtics defense he is often getting blocked. Consequently he will go to the outside shot frequently. If this happens and the Lakers do not get a team effort, the Celtics will likely prevail.
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